“We have a national problem that isn’t solved at the national level,” said Phillip Atiba Goff, a Yale professor and co-founder of the Center for Policing Equity. But it doesn’t follow that the answers are primarily federal ones. This may seem counterintuitive to voters: Broad crime trends are often national in scale (that was the case when crime plummeted across the country starting in the 1990s, and when gun violence surged just about everywhere during the pandemic). “If you want to fix the problems, go run for mayor.” “You’re not going to fix the problems from there,” said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and consultant with AH Datalytics in New Orleans (and a former Upshot contributor). And your current sense of order in your community is definitely not controlled by your congressman. But the people with ready levers to pull are not sitting in the Senate. But it’s also devoid of the reality that these offices generally have little power to bend crime trends on the ground tomorrow.Ĭrime surges and falls for reasons that experts don’t fully understand, and it’s hard for even the most proven ideas to quickly reverse its direction. The law-and-order messaging is often disconnected from the nuance of crime trends (in 2022, homicide is up in some places, but down in others like New York City yes, Oklahoma has higher violent crime rates than California). Would-be governors will crack down on crime. Politicians around the country have promised in the closing days of the midterm election to crack down on crime.
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